Apple is expected to release a new iPhone SE 4 model in a couple months, and beyond that, the fall will bring updated flagships in the form of an iPhone 17 update. And yet, the potential phone release from Apple that seems to excite people the most is a handset that's never seen the light of day and only exists in rumored form up to this point.
That would be the iPhone Flip, a phone that even the most optimistic Apple watchers don't expect to see until 2026 at the earliest. All the same, given how foldable phones are still a relatively new part of the smartphone market, you can understand why people are fascinated by what Apple might introduce after years of standing on the sidelines.
The latest news sparking a round of iPhone Flip chatter comes courtesy of analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, who recently posted that the iPhone Flip was in the planning stages. That's not necessarily a new development — back in November, an Apple foldable was reported to be heading into the "formal development process." But any word that work on the iPhone Flip is proceeding is going to spark speculation that the product is on track for a launch whether that's in 2026 or 2027.
Still, with a foldable iPhone at least a year away, recent trends in the foldables market have me wondering if Apple may have waited too long to come out with a folding device of its own. Or to put it another way, what if the iPhone Flip arrives long after interest in foldable phones has fallen off?
Foldable phones — still growing or no?
From a vibes standpoint, you wonder if interest in foldables has cooled somewhat now that the devices aren't the novelty they were five years ago. Certainly, recent releases from Samsung like the Galaxy Z Fold 6 and Galaxy Z Flip 6 have made iterative changes like improving the durability of the hinge and making devices like the Fold less bulky. Those two Samsung phones also saw price hikes from their predecessors. But among the best foldable phones, it's been a long time since we've seen a big leap forward for these devices.
I'd argue that the last significant innovation was the Open Canvas approach to multitasking that arrived with the OnePlus Open. That phone came out in 2023, and OnePlus still has yet to produce a follow-up.
Other news seems to suggest I'm not imagining stalled interest in foldable devices. A report out of Korea late last year claimed Samsung planned to cut the number of foldable phones it would produce for this year's Fold and Flip updates by nearly 40% from the Galaxy Z Fold 6 and Z Flip 6 models it ordered — indicating that the company made far more foldables than people actually wanted.
Just this week, research firm IDC released a report on global smartphone shipments, which rose during the last three months of 2024. But at the same time, IDC research director for client devices, Anthony Scarsella, says that there's a decrease demand for foldables, even as phone makers have gotten more aggressive about promoting the devices.
"The adoption of foldable devices among consumers and businesses has been challenging on numerous fronts."
— Anthony Scarsella, IDC
"The adoption of foldable devices among consumers and businesses has been challenging on numerous fronts," Scarsella said, when I asked him why demand had stalled. "The biggest challenge remains price, i.e., value for the money. The cost of most foldables is well above that of most flagships that feature similar features, specifications, and chipsets. Furthermore, we don’t see any killer use cases for businesses and consumers regarding foldables."
Avi Greengart, president lead analyst with Techsponential, sees interest in foldables rising as device prices drop and phone makers improve the durability and software experience. "However, it is still just a small segment of the market, and thanks to the additional displays and hinges, foldable phones are inherently more expensive to make," he said.
Where that leaves Apple and the iPhone Flip
With foldable devices failing to break out of their niche segment of the wider phone market, you might if Apple decides that it's no longer worth developing a device that may only grab of a fraction of the fraction of sales existing foldables command. I certainly do, but then again, that's not necessarily how Apple thinks.
"As for Apple, we know they love to wait on new tech and sit back and see how the market reacts before coming to market themselves," IDC's Scarsella said. "Moreover, they also want to avoid some of the same problems (durability, screen crease, build quality) as current devices on the market, which are bound to the limit of current screen technology."
Greengart sees the same thing happening, with Apple biding its time until it has a product that can stand out.
"Apple has been prototyping foldables for years in its labs, but the iOS ecosystem is strong enough that Apple can afford to wait until it has a foldable it thinks is better than what is on the market, or until the pull of foldables starts impacting Apple sales," said Greengart, noting that the same thing happened with larger-screen phones. Apple only started increasing the size of iPhone screen after Samsung enjoyed sustained success with its phablets.
"The iOS ecosystem is strong enough that Apple can afford to wait until it has a foldable it thinks is better than what is on the market, or until the pull of foldables starts impacting Apple sales."
— Avi Greengart
It's certainly part of Apple's DNA to not necessarily be the first to market with a new device, but to develop something more refined after other companies have struggled. After all, that's what happened with the iPhone, and history could eventually repeat itself once the iPhone Flip comes along.
Apple may have an edge in one area, as rumors have the company leaning toward a flip phone -style foldable. Of the two current styles of foldable phone, that's the one consumers have been responding to, Scarsella said.
"The Flip style has fared better amongst consumers... as the ability to make a larger phone more pocketable is seen as a valuable feature to some," he added.
So that takes us back to where we've been for a while — in a waiting game as we see if the iPhone Flip moves any closer from rumor to shipping product. Based on the timelines being floated, it could be a lengthy wait for a foldable iPhone, but Apple is gambling that the finished product should be worth it.
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