iPhone 16 sales are not as big as previous years — here’s why

iPhone 16 Pro Max shown in hand
(Image credit: Tom's Guide)

iPhone 16 sales are strong (it's a new iPhone after all), but are still somehow slower than expected, according to a message to investors from Morgan Stanley (seen by AppleInsider).

It's claimed that Apple shipped 37 million iPhone 16 series units over its first weekend. Most of those were the iPhone 16 Pro Max, but the iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus saw considerable growth over previous years. However, despite these impressive statistics, these numbers represent lower demand than for previous iPhones.

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Morgan Stanley illustrates this with the wait time you'd face for an iPhone 16 model if you decided to buy one today. According to its findings, the longest wait for an iPhone 16 is 25.5 days — for a Pro Max. That's long for sure, but compare that to the 43.5 days that users were waiting for the equivalent iPhone 15 Pro Max last year and it's a big difference.

A table0 showing the initial lead times for iPhone models going from iPhone XS to iPhone 16

(Image credit: AppleInsider/Morgan Stanley)

Comparing this with other iPhone launches, the iPhone 16 models apparently have the shortest lead time since the iPhone 12 launch back in 2020. As a result, Morgan Stanley predicts Apple may reduce its iPhone 16 orders to compensate, but admits things are still developing so this prediction is only tentative.

Why the slow sales?

The relative lower demand for iPhone 16 could indicate that Apple's judged this year's demand better than previous ones, and can therefore send out units more quickly. Or perhaps that people aren't buying iPhones with the same enthusiasm as they once were.

A slow start to the iPhone 16 series' sales makes sense considering some of the iPhone 16's biggest features have not arrived with the phones' launch. All Apple Intelligence features remain in beta, including the iPhone 16-exclusive Visual Intelligence ability, and the Camera Control's two-stage shutter and full Siri 2.0 upgrade won't be ready either. Perhaps once these arrive on the iPhone 16, we'll start to see upgrade interest increase.

The iPhone 16's been official for less than a month, and has only been on sale for a week, so any declarations of its failure or success would be premature to say the least. But something different has happened in this launch window compared to previous years, and no doubt in future, we'll be pointing to fall 2024 as a pivotal year in the iPhone's fortunes.

If you want to know more about the latest iPhones and what we make of them, have a read of our iPhone 16, iPhone 16 Plus, iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max reviews.

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Richard Priday
Assistant Phones Editor

Richard is based in London, covering news, reviews and how-tos for phones, tablets, gaming, and whatever else people need advice on. Following on from his MA in Magazine Journalism at the University of Sheffield, he's also written for WIRED U.K., The Register and Creative Bloq. When not at work, he's likely thinking about how to brew the perfect cup of specialty coffee.