Oscars 2025 winners list — the night's biggest upsets and surprises

How did our Oscars 2025 predictions shape up?

Now that the big shindig's over, let's see how our streaming team's predictions played out. Our streaming editor Kelly Woo won our office's Oscars 2025 pool with 18 out of 23 categories, followed by Rory Mellon (14) and Malcolm McMillan (12).

Few categories stumped our streaming team, but we did strike out on Best Actress (all three thought Demi Moore was a shoo-in for "The Substance) and Best Editing, which went to "Anora" over our frontrunner, "Conclave."

'Anora' takes home Best Picture

And this year's Best Picture winner is...drumroll...'Anora'! As our No. 1 pick to win, we're patting ourselves on the backs right now.

It's a historic win for director Sean Baker, who with four awards under his belt this evening, ties with Walt Disney for the most Oscars won by a single individual at the Academy Awards. All told, "Anora" snagged five Oscars for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress, Best Original Screenplay, and Best Film Editing.

The other nominees for Best Picture didn't make out too badly either. "The Brutalist" scored three while "Dune: Part Two," "Wicked," and “Emilia Pérez” each took home two awards.

Best Actress goes to 'Anora's Mikey Madison

"Anora" is sweeping up the big five, with Mikey Madison taking home Best Actress.

'Anora's' Sean Baker takes home Best Director

Watch out, Walt Disney — "Anora" director Sean Baker is looking to match the House of Mouse's 51-year record for most Oscars won in a single night (four).

In accepting the award for Best Director, Baker urged filmmakers to "keep making films for the big screen, I know I will."

"Movie theaters, especially independently owned theaters, are struggling," he continued. "If we don't reverse this trend, we'll be losing a vital part of our culture."

Adrien Brody wins Best Actor

Only a handful of actors have won two leading actor Oscars, and Adrien Brody now stands among them. His first for his role in 2002's “The Pianist” earned him the title of youngest-ever actor to win Best Actor, at age 29.

On Sunday, he took to the stage to accept the award for his leading role in "The Brutalist" and delivered a heartfelt speech about second chances and the tumultuous Hollywood landscape.

"Acting is a very fragile profession. It looks very glamorous, and at certain moments it is, but the one thing I've gained in having the privilege to come back here is to have some perspective," he said. "And no matter where you are in your career, no matter what you've accomplished, it can all go away, and I think what makes this night the most special is the awareness of that."

In an absolute power move, when the orchestra began playing him off, he told them to cut the music until he was finished saying his piece. We stan a king.

It all comes down to this

Only the biggest awards are left, and it's shaping up to be anyone's game. Five of the Best Picture nominees are tied with two Oscars each: "Anora," "Wicked" “Emilia Pérez," "Dune: Part Two," and "The Brutalist."

But which will take home Hollywood's biggest prize? Our money's on "Anora," but we'll just have to wait and see.

This year's Academy Awards have seen a surprising lack of upsets so far, but that could change if Timothy Chalamet takes home the Oscar for Best Actor after already cinching the Screen Actors Guild award in the same category.

It'd be heartbreaking to see crowd-favorite Adrien Brody go home empty-handed after his powerful performance in "The Brutalist."

'The Brutalist' scores again

And just like that, we have a five-way tie among the Best Picture nominees now that "The Brutalist" has scooped up its second win of the night for Best Original Score.

Composer Daniel Blumberg accepted the award, which would have gone to "Challengers" if we had any say in it, but alas, the tennis drama ended up being one of this year's most egregious Oscar snubs.

'The Brutalist' wins its first Oscar of the night

Best Picture nominee "The Brutalist" nabbed its first win of the night in cinematography.

This is cinematographer Lol Crawley's first nomination and win after a nearly 20-year career of bold, critically acclaimed work.

He accepted the award with a heartfelt speech thanking his family and "The Brutalist" director Brady Corbet for "allowing me to sail close to the edge, and offering your hand if I ever fall in."

Here's how the Best Picture race is shaping up

We're a little over halfway through tonight's ceremony, so let's take a moment to see how the Best Picture nominees are stacking up so far.

Right now there's a four-way tie between "Anora," "Wicked," and “Emilia Pérez," with "Dune: Part Two" catching up to them after its back-to-back win for Best Sound and Best Visual Effects. All four Best Picture nominees have two Oscars each. Trailing not far behind are "Conclave" and "The Substance" each with one win.

'Dune: Part Two' wins Best Sound and Best Visual Effects

"Dune: Part Two" took home two major awards this evening: the Oscar for Best Sound and Best Visual Effects.

Not a huge surprise, given that "Dune: Part One" nabbed both of those awards as well, proving that this franchise remains a durable presence in the Oscars’ technical categories.

'No Other Land' wins Best Documentary Feature

"No Other Land," a stark look at the daily struggles of Palestinian communities amid Israeli occupation, won the Oscar for Best Documentary Feature. It's an especially poignant win considering the film famously struggled to find a U.S. producer and only saw a one-week theatrical run in the states to qualify for the award.

Directors Basel Adra, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal, and Yuval Abraham called for a ceasefire in Gaza as they accepted the award, receiving an impassioned standing ovation from the crowd.

Anora now a lock for Best Picture with the Best Editing win

"Anora" was already our prediction for Best Picture, and now after its win for Best Editing, we're all but certain it's going to take home the big prize.

My coworker Malcolm also shared this interesting bit of Oscars trivia: If Baker wins Director and Picture, he'll become the first since Walt Disney in 1954 to take home four Oscars in one night. (Technically the honor should have gone to Bong Joon-ho for "Parasite," but he wasn't credited for winning Best International Feature at the 2020 Oscars.)

Mick Jagger presents Best Original Song to 'Emilia Pérez'

Anyone have Mick Jagger showing up on their Oscars bingo card? The legendary musician joked that Bob Dylan was asked to present the award, but he was too busy, plus we all know which contender would've gotten his vote: the Timothy Chalamet-led biopic about his music.

Best Original Song winners Camille and Clément Duco sang the theme to "Emilia Pérez" while accepting their Oscar for “El Mal.”

'Wicked' takes home second Oscar of the night

"Wicked" won for Best Production Design, and deservedly so given its lavish and fantastical sets that transport you right back to the land of Oz.

Jon Chu's movie musical is spellbinding from the first moments frolicking through the tulips of Munchkinland to the magical halls of Shiz and the giant animatronic puppet hiding the man behind the curtain. And that's thanks in large part to a production design philosophy that leaned toward using as little VFX as possible.

'Emilia Pérez' scores Best Supporting Actress

“Emilia Pérez” leads the field this year with 13 total Oscar nominations, and it just took home its first award of the night. Zoe Saldaña won for Best Supporting Actress, and so far she's the only winner of the night whose speech has veered political. The first American of Dominican origin to win an Oscar, she noted that she's the child of immigrants and choked up when talking about winning an Oscar for a Spanish-speaking role.

“My grandmother came to this country in 1961," she said. "I am a proud child of immigrant parents with dreams and dignity."

'Anora' wins again for Best Editing

Would you look at that? "Anora" has scooped up its second Oscar of the evening for Best Film Editing, with Sean Baker returning to the stage to accept the award. "I saved this film in the edit," he joked as he accepted the award.

And it's a big one too: While the film that wins best editing doesn't always nab best picture, that's been the trend for the last two years, first with "Everything Everywhere All at Once" in 2023 and then with "Oppenheimer" in 2024. Suffice it to say, "Anora's" odds of taking home the big prize are looking pretty good right now.

Oscars pay tribute to James Bond

Taking a break from the awards for a bit, the Oscars took a moment to highlight the long-running 007 series in the second song and dance routine of the night.

Margaret Qualley from "The Substance," a trained ballerina, danced onstage amid a tribute to the James Bond movies over the decades.

Nick Offerman is this year's Oscar announcer

Does the voice announcing this year's presenters and winners at the Academy Awards sound familiar? That's because it's none other than Nick Offerman, best known for his role as everyone's favorite mustachioed libertarian Ron Swanson on the beloved comedy series "Parks and Recreation."

'The Substance' takes home Best Makeup and Hairstyling

After decades of the Academy snubbing horror movies, it's fantastic to see one getting its dues.

"The Substance" took home the Oscar for best makeup and hair, a deserving win given the grotesque physical transformation Demi Moore's character makes throughout the movie as she falls prey to the titular "substance" and its youth-defying properties.

'Conclave' wins Best Adapted Screenplay

Score one for "Conclave!" Screenwriter Peter Straughan won Best Adapted Screenplay for his work on the drama about the surprisingly riveting process of selecting the Pope's successor. The Oscar will look great on his shelf right next to the Golden Globe he already won for best screenplay for "Conclave."

"Just a huge thank you to everyone involved in making Conclave," said Straughan during his Oscars acceptance speech.

He then dedicated the award to his daughter, joking "this is for you" before clarifying that it was still, indeed, "mine."

Frontrunner 'Anora' takes home first award of the night

Filmmaker Sean Baker never got an Oscar nomination before this year, and now he's up for four tonight for his work on "Anora," rumored to be the frontrunner for this year's Best Picture.

And it's off to a good start, taking home the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay. Let's see if "Anora" can finish strong when we get to tonight's biggest award.

Like my coworker Rory, I had my fingers crossed that Jesse Eisenberg's "A Real Pain" would eke out a victory, but alas. At least the Academy gave Kieran Culkin his dues with the Best Supporting Actor win.

Best Costume Design goes to 'Wicked'

Five actors from five nominated films presented the award for best costumes, though it seems Bowen Yang was the only one who didn't get the memo that they weren't doing it in costume. To be fair, his Shiz uniform is fabulous.

This year's race was a competitive one, but "Wicked" with its pastel Shiz uniforms and green and pink motifs took home the Oscar for Best Costume Design.

The movie's lead costume designer Paul Tazewell, who was nominated for his work on 2021's "West Side Story," accepted the award in a heartfelt speech that received a standing ovation from "Wicked" star Cynthia Erivo when he mentioned he was the first black man designer to win the award.

Best Animated Short goes to 'In the Shadow of the Cypress'

“In the Shadow of the Cypress," a heart-wrenching story about PTSD, took home the Oscar for Best Animated Short. The shorts are almost impossible to see for non-Academy members, but based on projections, its win was a bit of an upset, with "Wander to Wonder" considered the frontrunner.

'Flow' beats Disney and Dreamworks for Best Animated Feature

"Flow," a film from a Latvian indie animated studio, beat out Disney's "Inside Out 2" and Dreamworks "The Wild Robot" to take home the award for Best Animated Feature. It's a huge win for indie animation at a time when industry cutbacks and the rise of AI art have made the landscape particularly bleak.

As Conan noted after the award was presented, it also marks the first time a Latvian studio has won an Oscar. "Take that Estonia," he teased.

You can stream "Flow" on Max now.

Kieran Culkin wins Best Supporting Actor

The first win of the night went to Kieran Culkin for his role in "A Real Pain." This was one of the few categories this year that seemed locked down, and everyone on our streaming staff had him as the clear frontrunner.

"As a 'Succession' superfan, who also adored “A Real Pain,” I can’t wait to see his name called out on the night," our streaming writer Rory said.

His acceptance speech proved just as irreverent and hilarious as we thought it would. After thanking his agent and screenwriter and co-star Jessie Eisenberg, he turned to his wife, Jazz Charton, whom he reminded that she once promised she'd give him four kids when he won an Oscar: "So let's get cracking on those kids."

You can stream "A Real Pain" on Hulu now.

And a one, and a two...

Keeping the lighthearted vibes going, Conan assured viewers he plans to waste no time this evening. He's so committed, in fact, that he performed a musical number reiterating that fact.

The brief song and dance number included cameos from the sandworm from "Dune," who gave us a little preview of his piano-playing prowess, and Deadpool, a character from a movie with zero nominations this year, Conan made sure to note.

Adam Sandler's casual red carpet style strikes again

Known for wearing oversize hoodies, flashy Hawaiian shirts, baggy shorts, and sporty sneakers, it's clear Adam Sandler prioritizes comfort above all else. Over the years, his Oscar ensembles have been notoriously underdressed, and this year was no different, with Conan teasing the "Happy Gilmore" star for rocking a hoodie and basketball shorts.

Conan warns nominees to keep it short and sweet

To keep things running smoothly, Conan warned nominees that instead of playing them off with music when they go on too long, the Academy is going to do something much more powerful: cutting to John Lithgow looking slightly disappointed.

If they still refuse to get off the stage at that point, he said he's prepared to whip out old headshots to embarrass them with. To illustrate his point, he shared headshots of Zoe Saldana, himself and Timothy Chalamet (or rather an ultrasound of him).

Conan hosts the Oscars

Comedian Conan O’Brien, who is hosting the show for the first time, has promised it will be a “fun” night. He took to the stage for Hollywood's biggest nights to get this show on the road.

"It's the Oscars, let's do this thing. You ready to go?" He said to cheers from the audience.

He kicked things off with a not-so-subtle dig at Netflix's price hikes and the fact that the Oscars did not use AI to make the show. "We would never do that - we use child labor," he quipped.

Most shocking Oscar moments

The Oscars aren’t lacking for drama, and that’s not me making a subtle dig over the fact that a comedy seemingly can’t win Best Picture. Whether it’s political statements, uncomfortable moments or more, there are plenty of moments in Oscar history that left us speechless.

Whether it's recency bias or not, many of these moments have occurred a decade or so, including the two clear frontrunners. But plenty have occurred throughout the Academy Awards 95-year history. So in true Oscars fashion, I’ve put together a list of five nominees for Best Shocking Oscar Moment.

And the nominees are …

• “Brokeback Mountain” loses to “Crash” (2006)
• A streaker interrupts the Oscars (1974)
• Will Smith slaps Chris Rock (2022)
• ‘La La Land’ wins Best Picture for 150 seconds (2017)
• Marlon Brando refuses to accept Best Actor (1973)

And the Oscar goes to …

In a potentially shocking upset, “La La Land” wins Best Shocking Oscar Moment!

For those with the short-term memory of a certain blue fish, in 2017 “La La Land” was awarded Best Picture, which wasn’t a huge surprise. The huge surprise came 150 seconds later when one of the movie’s producers, Jordan Horowitz, had to embarrassingly (but graciously) reveal that it was, in fact, “Moonlight” that won the top prize.

The official explanation for the biggest gaffe in Oscar history was that accounting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers, which handles the tabulation of Oscar votes and handing out the Oscar envelopes to presenters, mistakenly handed Best Picture presenter Faye Dunaway and Warren Beatty a duplicate of the category envelope for Best Actress instead of Best Picture.

The envelope, of course, read Emma Stone for “La La Land,” an award she had received earlier in the broadcast. But Beatty had opened a sealed envelope, so Dunaway took this to mean that “La La Land” was meant to be the winner.

Multiple speeches from the “La La Land” team later, and the mistake was corrected, allowing the “Moonlight” producers to bask in the glory they had rightfully won. Between the fact that such a gaffe — the worst mixup that could possibly occur — happened and the embarrassment of the moment for so many involved, I give it the edge over Will Smith’s slap, which seems to be largely glossed over even though we who saw it happen still remember to this day. - Malcolm

Biggest Oscars 2025 snubs

If you’re giving out awards, you’re going to end up with some snubs. Awards are inherently subjective; what you like is different from what we like is different from what an Academy member likes. In our breakdowns of each category, we’ve noted several major snubs. Here are the ones that really stood out this year:

‘A Real Pain’ in Best Picture

Even with Best Picture expanded to 10 nominees (at most), a really great movie is bound to be left out every year during nominations. And unfortunately, this year, that dubious honor went to “A Real Pain.” The dramedy was one of my top 10 movies of 2025 and it earned two Oscar noms — one of which it will definitely win (Kieran Culkin for Best Supporting Actor).

As I said in my best of the year roundup, “A Real Pain” takes a topic — revisiting the site of Holocaust horrors — that “might feel heavy and ponderous instead come across as healing and profound.” That’s due to the light, deft touch Jesse Eisenberg has on the script (which was nominated) and in his first-time direction, as well as both his and Culkin’s fantastic performances.

In hindsight, “Emilia Pérez” could’ve been left off the list in favor of “A Real Pain.” As it is, it’s likely the only recognition the movie will get is when Culkin takes the stage to get his well-deserved trophy. - Kelly

‘Challengers’ for Best Original Score

Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross - Challengers | Challengers (Original Score) - YouTube

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I finally saw “Challengers” this weekend, and I could go into a tirade about how it's snubbed in multiple categories.

But by far the biggest snub is the brilliant original score from Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross (aka Nine Inch Nails) and the idea that it’s not winning let alone nominated is absurd. It's brilliant on its own as an album, but when tied into the movie it's perfect.

For reference, it’s won a Golden Globe and been nominated for a Grammy, while “Wicked” wasn’t even nominated for the Golden Globe. Between the exclusion of “Challengers” and “Dune: Part Two,” this year’s award comes with a massive asterisk, no matter who wins. - Malcolm

Marianne Jean-Baptiste for Best Actress

'Hard Truths' With Marianne Jean-Baptiste and Michele Austin | Academy Conversations - YouTube

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Marianne Jean-Baptiste shouldn’t have just been nominated for her leading turn in the British drama “Hard Truths,” she should be winning Best Actress. Her performance as the venom-filled and deeply unhappy Pansy made me belly laugh, but also broke my heart. She was breathtaking and carried the weight of the entire movie on her shoulders. It takes a deeply skilled actress to pull off such flawless comedy and gut-twisting sadness in one role. Who should she replace? I hate to pile on, but Karla Sofía Gascón for “Emilia Pérez.” - Rory

The rest of the Oscar nominees and predictions

Best Animated Feature nominees and predictions

• "Flow"
• "Inside Out 2"
• "Memoir of a Snail"
• "Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl"
• "The Wild Robot"

Our Picks

Kelly - Let’s hear it for the inventive and genuinely moving undercat, “Flow.”

Malcolm - To my shame, I haven’t seen any of these but after “Flow” shocked the Golden Globes I expect it to win here.

Rory - It speaks to the caliber of animated efforts this year when my childhood favorites “Wallace & Gromit” aren’t my top pick. “Memoir of a Snail” or “Flow” would be much deserving, but so would “The Wild Robot” and I think Dreamworks walks home with the gold.

Best International Feature nominees and predictions

• "Emilia Pérez", France
• "Flow", Latvia
• "The Girl with the Needle", Denmark
• "I’m Still Here", Brazil
• "The Seed of the Sacred Fig", Germany

Our Picks

Kelly - The utter collapse of “Emilia Pérez” paves the way for fellow Best Picture nominee “I’m Still Here.”

Malcolm - This was a lock for "Emilia Pérez" before that movie’s Oscars campaign collapsed. Going to go with “I’m Still Here” given it’s also nominated for Best Picture but has a less controversial star.

Rory - “Emilia Pérez” was being touted as a Best Picture frontrunner just a few weeks back, and while its reputation has taken a beating, I still think it wins International Feature. “Kneecap” not even being nominated is the real crime.

Best Documentary Feature

"Black Box Diaries"

"No Other Land"

"Porcelain War"

"Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat"

"Sugarcane"

Our picks:

Kelly - While “Porcelain War” could complete an Oscar trifecta of docs about opposing Russia, I’m going with “No Other Land,” which is about the other big conflict of the day.

Malcolm - Unfortunately, I haven’t seen these five films. But all indications are that “Porcelain War” will follow up its Sundance Grand Jury Prize with an Oscars statuette.

Rory - I’m not especially well versed in the documentary categories, but I’m opting for “No Other Land” purely because of its timely subject matter.

Best Cinematography nominees and predictions

"The Brutalist"

"Dune Part Two"

"Emilia Pérez"

"Maria"

"Nosferatu"

Our picks:

Kelly - The precursors have been all over the place, so I’ll place my bet on “The Brutalist” for its old-school use of VistaVision.

Malcolm’s - Going with my heart and picking “Dune: Part Two.” But I won’t be shocked to see “The Brutalist” win here.

Rory - Sometimes you’ve just got to pick your heart over your head, I’m probably costing myself a point but darn it I want “Nosferatu” to win, and perhaps it will…

Best Film Editing

"Anora"

"The Brutalist"

"Conclave"

"Emilia Pérez"

"Wicked"

Our picks:

Kelly - The editing guild hasn’t held its awards yet, so no hints there. I’m picking “Conclave” for providing tightly-paced thrills.

Malcolm - I want to pick “Anora” but Baker hasn’t taken a win yet in this category in precursor awards. So I’m going with “Conclave,” which took home the BAFTA for Best Editing.

Rory - I’m still not over “Bohemian Rhapsody” winning in this category, so while “Conclave” is my pick this year, I mainly just hope the Academy retroactively rescinds its 2019 pick.

Best Production Design

"The Brutalist"

"Conclave"

"Dune: Part Two"

"Nosferatu"

"Wicked"

Our picks:

Kelly: The lavish and fantastical sets of “Wicked’ deserve this prize.

Malcolm - I love “Dune: Part Two,” think this should go to “The Brutalist” and wholly expect it to go to “Wicked.”

Rory - “Wicked” transported audiences back to the land of Oz, and that’s a strong enough reason to award the musical this one.

Best Costume Design nominees and predictions

"A Complete Unknown"

"Conclave"

"Gladiator II"

"Nosferatu"

"Wicked"

Our picks:

Kelly - “Wicked,” by a mile.

Malcolm: I think “Wicked” wins here but I’d be satisfied with a win for “Conclave” and its red hats.

Rory - “Wicked” wins, “Wicked deserves to win. Everybody is happy.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

"A Different Man"

"Emilia Pérez"

"Nosferatu"

"The Substance"

"Wicked"

Our picks:

Kelly - The Academy loves when beautiful people are made to look ugly and decrepit, so it’s “The Substance.”

Malcolm - “Wicked” feels like a smart pick here but I’d love to see “The Substance” win.

Rory - I’m going with “The Substance” because the physical transformation of Demi Moore’s character throughout the movie is the definition of awards-worthy.

Best Original Song

"El Mal" from “Emilia Pérez”

"The Journey" from “The Six Triple Eight”

"Like a Bird" from "Sing Sing"

"Mi Camino" from “Emilia Pérez”

"Never Too Late" from “Elton John: Never Too Late”

Our picks:

Kelly - I think the Academy will throw “Emilia Pérez” a bone, to “El Mal.”

Malcolm - Going with “El Mal” because people I trust think it will be “El Mal.” But it should have been “Compress / Repress” from “Challengers.”

Rory - This is more a question of which nominee from “Emilia Pérez” wins. “Mi Camino” has more Spotify streams than “El Mal” (1.5m vs 600k) so I’m picking the former.

Best Original Score

"The Brutalist"

"Conclave"

"Emilia Pérez"

"Wicked"

"The Wild Robot"

Our picks:

Kelly - Justice for “Challengers”! In its absence, Daniel Blumberg’s memorable score for “The Brutalist” should prevail.

Malcolm - The “Challengers” erasure here makes me sick, but I expect Volker Bertelmann to take home his second Oscar and win for “Conclave”

Rory - I’ll second the “Challengers” should be here shout, but I’ll be delighted to see “The Brutalist” win, and I think it will. The build into the movie’s baked-in intermission is spine-tingling cinema and the score is a huge factor as to why that moment is so powerful.

Best Sound

"A Complete Unknown"

"Dune: Part Two"

"Emilia Pérez"

"Wicked"

"The Wild Robot"

Our picks:

Kelly - “Dune: Part Two” should and will win.

Malcolm - This should absolutely be “Dune: Part Two” and I refuse to consider an alternative.

Rory - “Dune: Part Two” and “Wicked” would both be worthy winners, I’m picking the fantasy musical, but I’m not totally confident.

Best Visual Effects

"Alien: Romulus"

"Better Man"

"Dune: Part Two"

"Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes"

"Wicked"

Our picks:

Kelly - The first “Dune” won this category and so will the second.

Malcolm - Going to be whimsical and give this to “Better Man” and its simian star, even though “Dune: Part Two” and “Wicked” would both be deserving of a win here.

Rory - “Alien: Romulus” becoming an Oscar-winning movie is the stuff of my dreams, but it’ll have to settle for merely a nomination. This category often goes to the movie with the most visual effects, so “Dune Part Two,” “Wicked” or “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” all have a claim, I’m guessing “Dune Part Two” mainly because “Dune” won back in 2022.

Best Animated Short

“Beautiful Men”

“In the Shadow of the Cypress”

“Magic Candies”

“Wander to Wonder”

“Yuck!”

Our picks:

Kelly - I’ve seen none of the shorts, but “Yuck!” looks adorable.

Malcolm - The shorts are almost impossible to see for non-Academy members. So based on current projections, I’m picking “Wander to Wonder” and its use of stop-motion animation.

Rory - I’m picking “Magic Candies” purely based on its awesome name alone.

Best Documentary Short

“Death by Numbers”

“I Am Ready, Warden”

“Incident”

“Instruments of a Beating Heart”

“The Only Girl in the Orchestra”

Our picks:

Kelly - Again, this is a totally blind choice. I’m going with “Incident,” which seems very topical.

Malcolm - The shorts are almost impossible to see for non-Academy members, but you can actually watch “The Only Girl in the Orchestra” on Netflix. So that’s my pick.

Rory - I’ve heard some incredible things about “Incident”, but “The Only Girl in the Orchestra” has the most buzz, so it’s my pick.

Best Live Action Short

“A Lien”

“Anuja”

“I'm Not a Robot”

“The Last Ranger”

“The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent”

Our picks:

Kelly - “The Last Ranger” sounds like a tear-jerker with a message that would resonate with Academy members.

Malcolm - The shorts are almost impossible to see for non-Academy members. So I’m picking “The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent,” as it won at both Cannes and the European Film Awards.

Rory - “The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent” is the current odds-on favorite to win, so when in doubt, follow the bookies.

Best Adapted Screenplay nominees and predictions

• "A Complete Unknown" - James Mangold and Jay Cocks
• "Conclave" - Peter Straughan
• "Emilia Pérez" - Jacques Audiard;
• "Nickel Boys" - RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes
• "Sing Sing" - Greg Kwedar and Clint Bentley

Our Picks

Kelly - “Nickel Boys” won the WGA, but “Conclave” was ineligible. The latter is No. 2 for the Best Picture (or maybe more like 1B) so this will be its consolation prize.

Malcolm - The Writers Guild gave this to “Nickel Boys” but I expect the larger voting body of the Academy to give it to “Conclave.” Also, if you haven’t seen the live table read of “Conclave” on YouTube featuring Ayo Edibiri and Brett Goldstein (among many others) that I highly recommend you check out.

Rory - Is it too much to ask for “Sing Sing” to come from nowhere and scoop this Oscar? Probably. I suspect “Conclave” gets its flowers in this category.

Best Original Screenplay nominees and predictions

• "Anora" - Sean Baker
• "The Brutalist" - Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold
• "A Real Pain" - Jesse Eisenberg
• "September 5" - Moritz Binder and Tim Fehlbaum; co-written by Alex David
• "The Substance" - Coralie Fargeat

Our Picks

Kelly - “Anora.” It won the WGA, though the guild doesn’t always line up with the Oscars. Still, the other major contender is Jesse Eisenberg, but “A Real Pain” wasn’t nominated for Best Picture (which I’ll discuss in our snubs roundup later) and a movie hasn’t won the Original Screenplay Oscar without a corresponding Best Picture nomination since the latter category was expanded.

Malcolm - The Writers Guild picked Sean Baker but I’m picking Jesse Eisenberg for “A Real Pain”

Rory - I hope “A Real Pain” wins, I suspect “Anora” will, but this is among the closest races of the night with “The Substance” and “The Brutalist” also in contention.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role nominees and predictions

• Monica Barbaro, "A Complete Unknown"
• Ariana Grande, "Wicked"
• Felicity Jones, "The Brutalist"
• Isabella Rossellini, "Conclave"
• Zoe Saldaña, "Emilia Pérez"

Our Picks

Kelly - Zoe Saldaña has managed to emerge relatively unscathed from the wreckage of “Emilia Pérez.” I think this is one of the two categories where the Academy rewards this year’s most-nominated movie.

Malcolm - Monica Barbaro absolutely deserves this award for “A Complete Unknown” but I’ll be shocked if Zoe Saldaña doesn’t win for "Emilia Pérez"

Rory - Almost every fiber of my being wants to select Ariana Grande to will her winning into existence, but it would be a futile effort. Zoe Saldaña’s name is already on the golden statue.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role nominees and predictions

• Yura Borisov, "Anora"
• Kieran Culkin, "A Real Pain"
• Edward Norton, "A Complete Unknown"
• Guy Pearce, "The Brutalist"
• Jeremy Strong, "The Apprentice"

Our Picks

Kelly - Kieran Culkin is the lockiest lock that ever locked. I’m looking forward to what I’m sure will be an entertaining speech.

Malcolm - Perhaps the one true lock of this Academy Awards, Kieran Culkin is going to win for "A Real Pain."

Rory - Kieran Culkin is going to win, and it’s not even a debate. As a “Succession” superfan, who also adored “A Real Pain,” I can’t wait to see his name called out on the night.

Oscar fashion hits and misses

Our focus during the Oscars ceremonies will strictly focus on the movies and who does or doesn't win the golden statuettes.

However, if you're interested in the attire of nominees, our colleagues at Marie Claire are tracking every outfit from the astounding to the confusing and everything in between.

Plus, our friends at Who What Wear will be breaking down the fashion choices of Hollywood's celebs as they walk the red carpet.

Best Actress in a Leading Role nominees and predictions

• Cynthia Erivo, "Wicked"
• Mikey Madison, "Anora"
• Demi Moore, "The Substance"
• Karla Sofía Gascón, "Emilia Pérez"
• Fernanda Torres, "I’m Still Here"

Our Picks

Kelly - Demi Moore has run a flawless campaign this season and the Academy loves nothing more than rewarding a comeback (see: Brendan Fraser two years ago, Matthew McConaughey in 2013).

Malcolm - Demi Moore feels inevitable here but I’m going to vote with my heart and give it to Mikey Madison even though I’m almost certain I’ll be wrong.

Rory - The Academy loves recognizing a performer's whole career with an Oscar which is why I think Demi Moore wins here, but could the intense gore of “The Substance” be counted against Moore by the notoriously squeamish voting body?

Best Actor in a Leading Role nominees and predictions

• Adrien Brody, "The Brutalist"
• Timothée Chalamet, "A Complete Unknown"
• Colman Domingo, "Sing Sing"
• Ralph Fiennes, "Conclave"
• Sebastian Stan, "The Apprentice"

Our Picks

Kelly - Timothée Chalamet’s SAG win was quite the surprise, but I think the older Academy voting body won’t make him the youngest best actor winner to tie with … Adrien Brody, who will take home a second trophy.

Malcolm - Tough to pick from a deserving bunch but the ascendancy of Timothée Chalamet feels unstoppable.

Rory - Timothée Chalamet aspires to be one of the greats but I reckon he’ll have to wait to join the Oscar winners circle as despite the SAG upset, I believe Adrien Brody will take this one.

Best Director nominees and predictions

• Jacques Audiard, "Emilia Pérez"
• Sean Baker, "Anora"
• Brady Corbet, "The Brutalist"
• Coralie Fargeat, "The Substance"
• James Mangold, "A Complete Unknown"

Our Picks

Kelly - Sean Baker. He won the DGA and nine of the last 10 DGA winners went on to take the Oscar. That said, the exception is in 2019, when DGA winner Sam Mendes (“1917”) lost the Oscar to Bong Joon-ho, whose “Parasite” rode an upswell of support to Best Picture. I don’t think “The Brutalist” has that same momentum for Brady Corbet. If Edward Berger had been nominated for “Conclave,” I could maybe see a split, but that’s not the case.

Malcolm - Going with Sean Baker here because he won at the Directors Guild Awards but won’t be surprised if it’s Brady Corbet for “The Brutalist.”

Rory - The Directors Guild Awards are largely reliable indicators of success at the Oscars so I can’t look beyond Sean Baker. Plus, the Academy has a strong track record of awarding Best Picture and Best Director to the same movie having done so 69 times (nice!)

Best Picture nominees and predictions

• "Anora"
• "The Brutalist"
• "A Complete Unknown"
• "Conclave"
• "Dune: Part Two"
• "Emilia Pérez"
• "I'm Still Here"
• "Nickel Boys"
• "The Substance"
• "Wicked"

Our Picks

Kelly - This Best Picture race is the most topsy-turvy in years. Even before “Emilia Pérez” imploded, I never thought it would win; it’s just too polarizing. The preferential ballot for this category rewards movies that most voters at least kinda like, and this year, the choices seem to be “Anora” and “Conclave.” With top prizes from the producer, directors and writers guilds, “Anora” has the edge over “Conclave,” which got the nod from actors.

Malcolm - I’ll be shocked if “Anora” doesn’t win. Between wins at the Directors Guild, Producers Guild and Writers Guild of America Awards, it seems a surprisingly obvious pick in an anything-but-obvious Oscars race.

Rory - “Conclave” is keeping this one interesting, but “Anora” is still very much the frontrunner even if it’s not a forgone conclusion like “Oppenheimer” was last year. Nevertheless, I expect “Anora” to be the 97th winner of the top prize in Hollywood.