The Apple Vision Pro isn’t for everyone, but if you’re holding off buying an Apple headset until the next major hardware upgrade, you may be waiting a while. Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo doesn’t expect there to be any major Vision Pro hardware upgrades until at least 2027.
However this isn’t bad news for those of you that specifically want a cheaper Vision headset. Kuo does predict that mass production on a new Vision Pro model may not kick off until sometime in 2027. However the production on the cheaper Vision headset may start in late 2025 or early 2026. That would work well for a mid-to-late 2026 launch, assuming no delays, though it is still a pretty long wait.
Kuo’s analysis suggests that Apple hasn’t started work on either model just yet. The cheaper Vision headset is also slated to focus on improving the efficiency of production and supply chain processes, rather than deliberately lowering specs. Kuo notes that the latest plan is set to limit the specs changes to ensure a similar user experience to the first generation Vision Pro.
Moving to other markets
Back to the present, though, and Kuo expects that Apple will be expanding beyond the U.S. market when the supply of Vision Pro headsets improve. U.S. shipments are expected to land somewhere between 200,000 and 250,000 units by the end of the year, while production has expanded to between 700,000 to 800,000 units. Apple’s going to have to sell those headsets somewhere, even if it doesn’t ship them all.
Kuo believes that Apple will launch the Vision Pro in other regions before WWDC in June, though schedules may rely on Apple being able to adequately modify software to comply with differing rules and regulations. Such as the EU, which has been forcing Apple to open up iOS as part of the Digital Markets Act and is unlikely to stop there.
In the U.S. demand appears to have dropped, with shipping times now estimating delivery in just 3-5 days. Which means Apple has an incentive to move ahead with a wider, international release.
Fewer returns than speculated
The good news is that Kuo’s sources estimate just 1% of sales end in a return — regardless of what social media says. 20-30% of those returns are apparently down to users not being able to set up the Vision Pro headset. Which is pretty wild when you think about it.
Kuo notes that everything Apple Vision Pro has been in line with Apple’s expectations, though it is gathering feedback to refine what comes next. So at this early stage there’s no telling what we might see, since it’s likely all in flux. Needless to say, if you’re looking forward to what comes next, you’re going to have to be patient.
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