It's official time for Google to have its moment in court in front of the U.S. government as it relates to its dominance of the search engine market. In August, a judge ruled that Google had violated antitrust laws to maintain its dominance in online search, and the government's potential solution involves breaking Google apart.
Specifically, the government, through Judge Amit P. Mehta, seeks to separate the company's popular web browser, Chrome, as reported by The New York Times.
There have also been discussions about separating Android from Google. However, it appears that Chrome is a bigger target, as it more directly directs users to Google search, making it more challenging for other search engines to establish a foothold.
"Regardless of the outcome, the trial reflects growing pressure to rethink how information flows online — and as AI reshapes search, it could mark the end of Google’s dominance," said IDC analyst Matt Eastwood via email.
Whatever happens after these three weeks will undoubtedly change things in the tech world, especially for Google. But will anything change for users like you and me?
If Google breaks up
The most likely outcome if Google loses the hearing is that it sells Chrome to another giant in the tech space for an amount of money that is beyond comprehension.
Google could also be forced to sell off Android, but that doesn't seem to be as significant a target to the U.S. government.
If this happens, the company that buys it could maintain Chrome as we're accustomed to, and everything will be fine. You can keep using Google search in Chrome, as you have. Perhaps it will be more accessible to change your default search engine to DuckDuckGo or another option, but will you want to?
Gmail, Android, and everything else should be the same, but as noted by IDC analyst Matt Eastwood, "the outcome could help improve consumer choice and competition, but reduce integration and convenience. Users might benefit long term, but short-term fragmentation could complicate experiences across devices and services."
"If the government succeeds, consumers may gain more control over their default search engines and services," Eastwood said.
But the odds of the government succeeding are low, according to some. "History suggests the odds of a breakup are slim to none," commented Gene Munster from Deepwater Asset Management.
The Impact on AI Wars
Regardless of the outcome of this case, it marks a significant milestone in the tech industry. The rise of AI shifts things even more, as there's a new space Google could be (and already is, with Gemini) attempting to dominate.
"If Google is split, rivals like Microsoft and OpenAI could gain additional ground at exactly the same time that search usage is being redefined by GenAI for the first time in a few decades," said Eastwood.
The analyst argues that it's possible that less integration could slow Google's AI rollout. But Eastwood also argues that more competition might accelerate broader innovation across the market.
However, users tend to stick with what they know.
"In the end, most users would stick with Google because they know and trust the brand. We saw this in Russia with Firefox kicked Yankex out for Google and consumers just switched back to Yandex after a year or two," said Munster.
Whether Google breaks up or remains one entity remains to be seen. We'll learn more this Summer, when the so-called "remedies" are expected to roll out.
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